Getting Started and Sampling Distributions教程.ppt

Sample Proportion The sample proportion is calculated by dividing the number of elements exhibiting a characteristic by the size of the sample. x is the number with the characteristic n is the number in the sample Sample Proportion The mean and standard deviation for determining a proportion in a population is: This gives a z-score for the population of: p = population proportion q = 1-p Problem If the sample of Democratic voters included 100 voters, what is the probability that Senator Clinton’s reported support is less than 28%. What if the sample included 400 voters? Addendum There is a third person I would like to introduce into the course, Nassim Taleb. He is an author, philosopher, and incidentally a very successful quantitative analyst. A New Game The game has the following rules: Every month, you will choose 36 people randomly from a crowd. If you have more funds available to you than the average wealth of this group, then they have to pay you an amount equal to their average wealth. If they have more wealth than you, then you have to pay each person ten times their average wealth. The game Using the tools discussed tonight, this is an attractive proposition. Suppose the average wealth in the US is about $200,000 with a standard deviation of $30,000. We can find financial backers to put in $5,000,000. This is 960 standard deviations away from what I expect to see at any time. I play this game successfully for 10 years. I win about $200,000 each month The investors get $100,000 and I pocket the rest. As expected, I never loose in this time period. Rewards of success! You do so well, you are invited to speak at the Davos World Economic Forum. Your monthly pick coincides with your speech. You put all of your money into the pool. Your investors risk all of their winnings plus enough additional wealth to bring your total to $500,000,000. But Who Else Is Attending This Conference? Ethical Dilemmas I Ethical Dilemmas I Bruce Hardy has kidney cancer which has spr