考虑时间效应滑坡风险评估和管理.pdfVIP

第27 卷第12 期 岩 土 力 学 Vol.27 No.12 2006 年12 月 Rock and Soil Mechanics Dec. 2006 文章编号：1000－7598 －(2006) 12 ―2239 ―08 考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理 李典庆，吴帅兵 (武汉大学 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，武汉 430072) 摘 要：提出了考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理方法。以香港地区近20 年的16 000 个切破的观测资料为基础，从统计 学的角度提出了边坡的时变可靠性分析方法。推导了新建边坡在未来服役时间内的年失效概率的计算公式，并对现役边坡在 未来服役时间内的年失效概率进行了预测。确定了基于年死亡人数的滑坡风险接受准则，并分析了基于滑坡时变风险的边坡 加固时间。结果表明，考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理方法能够更加真实地反映滑坡随时间变化的特性。新建边坡的年 失效概率随边坡服役时间逐渐增大，尤其是当边坡服役超过 10 年时，每年发生滑坡的概率急剧增大。现役边坡的年失效概 率基本与继续服役时间呈线形关系。此外，香港斜坡维修指南规定的边坡加固时间能够有效地将滑坡风险降低到ALARP 区 或可接受的风险区。 关 键 词：滑坡；风险评估和管理；失效概率；老化；时变性 中图分类号：P 642.22 文献标识码：A Landslide risk assessment and management considering time effect LI Dian-qing, WU Shuai-bing (State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China) Abstract: A landslide risk assessment and management considering time effect is proposed. From a statistical point of view, a time-dependent reliability approach for deteriorating slopes is formulated based on about 20-year observed performance of 16 000 soil cut slopes in Hong Kong. The annual probability of failure for new slopes is deduced; and an approach is presented to predict the annual probability of failure for existing slopes within next service time. Risk acceptance criteria in terms of annual risk of fatality are selected. Based on them, a risk based maintenance planning for slopes is obtained. The results indicate that the landslide risk assessment and management considering time effect can be capable of capturing the deteriorating characteristics of slopes effectively.