需求随机下房地产开发商最优进入-退出与能力扩张决策模型.pdfVIP

__________________________________________________________________________ 需求随机下房地产开发商最优进入-退出与能力扩张决策模型① 蔡晓钰 1 1 2 陈忠 蔡晓东 （1.上海华山路 1954号上海交通大学 287信箱 上海 200030;2.北京广播电视大学门头沟分校 北京 102300） E-mail:cai_xy4397@163.com Tel:021Dorm) 摘 要: 在租赁市场上，房地产开发商常常需要同时决定进入-退出时机及开发能力扩张的 的时机。然而这一研究在已往的房地产投资有关文献中有所忽视。鉴于此，本文在需求随机 的条件下，通过一两阶段决策模型同时研究了房地产开发商在租赁市场的进入-退出及能力 扩张问题。指出了进入、退出决策的隐式解并给出了扩张决策的阀值及扩张投资额度。研究 同时得出结论：不确定性与成本的提高会增大了开发商进入-退出的决策刚性，并同时抑制 了开发商的扩张投资。文章同时在行文中分析了结论的经济含义与政策含义。 关键词: 房地产开发；进入-退出决策；能力扩张；实物期权；Bellman 方程 A Model of the Optimal Entry-Exit and Capacity Expansion of Real Estate Developers under the Stochastic Demand 1 1 2 CAI Xiao-yu ，CHEN Zhong , CAI Xiao-dong （1.Mail Box 287, Shanghai Jiaotong Univ., 1954 Huashan Road, Shanghai, 200052;2. Beijing Mentougou TV Univ. Beijing 102300） Abstract: In lease market, real estate developers often meet the problems of simultaneously making decision for entry-exit as well as capacity expansion. The kinds of researches, however, have been ignored in existing literatures about real estate investment. Thus, this paper investigates the problems mentioned above through a two-stage investment model under the stochastic demand. We point out equations which determine the thresholds of entry and exit decision and analytical solutions to capacity expansion problem, and formulate the size of expansion investment. The study shows also that uncertainty and costs can increase the rigidity for making decision f