塔里木河流域径流演变规律分析.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 353-358 doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.15054 Published Online October 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html) * Analysis of Runoff Evolution Law of Tarim River Basin Chaoji Da, Qiang Huang, Yimin Wang Key Laboratory of Northwest Water Resources and Environmental Ecology of MOE, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an Email: dachaoji@126.com Received: Aug. 12th th th , 2012; revised: Aug. 27 , 2012; accepted: Sep. 11 , 2012 Abstract: The uncertainty of runoff rules of Tarim River’s headwaters leads to the great change of composi- tion of Tarim River’s main stream. To analyze the runoff rules of Tarim River’s headwaters and trunk stream, and provide the basis for sustainable development of water resources, this study selects modulus coefficient Kp method, Morlet wavelet analysis method and Kendall rank test model to analyze the abundance, cycle and trends annual runoff rules of headwaters and Alar hydrological station (1958-2007) at main stream of Tarim River. The results show that, the frequency synchronization of abundance of headwaters and main stream is 26%. The existing cycles is 17-year cycle, the runoff trend of headwaters are increasing or decreasing, while decreasing at main stream. Keywords: Runoff Rules; Cycle; Trend; Variation; Tarim River 塔里木河流域径流演变规律分析* 达朝吉，黄 强，王义民 西安理工大学，西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室，西安 Email: dachaoji@126.com 收稿日期：2012 年 8 月 12 日；修回日期：2012 年 8 月 27 日；录用日期：2012 年 9 月 11 日 摘 要：塔里木河各源流的径流规律不完全一致，导致了塔里木河干流水源组成变化比较大。为了认 识塔里木河流域的