短期负荷预测论文：基于神经网络短期电力负荷预测的研究.docVIP

短期负荷预测论文：基于神经网络的短期电力负荷预测研究 【中文摘要】电力负荷预测是供电部门的重要工作之一,电力负荷预测工作的水平已成为衡量一个电力企业的管理是否走向现代化的显著标志之一。随着经济和社会的发展,高准确度的短期负荷预测越来越重要。本文首先重点分析了电力负荷特性,提出了进行负荷分析应遵循的理念,并收集了上海地区2008和2009两年1至8月份影响电力负荷特性的的各类数据,进行了统计和分析,以上海地区为代表介绍大城市的负荷特性情况。第二部分介绍了神经网络的基本理论,其中重点研究了BP模型的结构、算法,对BP算法进行改进,利用遗传算法优化BP网络,仿真结果表明优化后的BP网络改善了训练过程中的误差,且预测结果更精确。第三部分首先提出建立影响短期负荷的相关因素映射数据库,并提出了映射数据库优化处理的策略,算例分析表明经过训练的相关因素的量化映射值更加合理,预测效果和稳定性得到了进一步提高。然后进行基于相关影响因素映射数据库的神经网络短期负荷预报的实现,由仿真结果可知映射数据库的建立明显有助于提高负荷预报的准确度。接着提出一种基于天气影响因素差异度的神经网络模型,算例分析表明该模型对天气变化较大或剧烈的负荷预测更为准确。第四部分主要是在对华东某地区各种影响负荷变化的相关因素进行研究的基础上,提出针对该地区供电企业进行短期负荷预测系统开发的框架设计思路。应用效果表明,该系统负荷预测模块满足应用需求。 【英文摘要】Load forecasting is one of the important tasks of the power enterprise, and the level of load forecasting has become one of the significant symbol which shows whether the management of a power enterprise has achieved modernization. With the economic and social development, high accuracy of short-term load forecasting wil be more and more important.This paper first analyzes the characteristics of the load, and the principles of load analysis should be followed. Various types of data of January to August of the last year and the year before last which affect load characteristics are collected for statistics and analysis to describe the load characteristics of large cities.The second part describes the basic theory of artificial neural networks(ANN), which focus on the BP neural network structure, algorithm and improved algorithm, and genetic algorithm is proposed to optimize the BP network. The simulation results show that the optimized BP network prediction results are more accurate. In the third part, the establishment of the concept mapping database related factors is proposed, and optimization strategy is proposed for mapping database. Example shows that the trained mapping values of quantitative factors are more reasonable , and the predicted effect and stability has been further improved. Then it studys short-term load forecasting( STLF) based on BP neural ne