BP神经网络和小波分析在年降水预报中的应用研究.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 340-346 doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.15052 Published Online October 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html) Study on the Precipitation Forecast Based on BP-Neural * Network and Wavelet Analysis 1 2 3 Haijing Xiong , Shicheng Wang , Dong Wang 1Anhui Huai River Water Technology Limited Company, Bengbu 2Hydrological Bureau, Huaihe River Commission, Bengbu 3Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing Email: xionghaijing@126.com Received: Jul. 29th th st , 2012; revised: Aug. 14 , 2012; accepted: Sep. 1 , 2012 Abstract: Jiangsu province is located in the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins, which is one of the areas most severely affected by droughts and floods. Therefore, it is important to study on the precipitation forecast in this area for the flood control with drought relief. In this paper, the precipitation forecast model based on BP Neural Network and Wavelet Neural Network is established with the precipitation data from four rainfall sta- tions in Jiangsu Province, which include the Xuzhou, Ganyu, Dongtai and Nanjing Stations. The following conclusions can be obtained by the example analysis: 1) The minimum relative error of BP neural network is 1.16%, the maximum relative error is 16.35%, the determine coefficient is