巴菲特致股东的信1988.pdf

巴菲特研究中心 Research Centre for Buffettism 巴菲特致股东的信1988 年 Buffett’s Letters To Berkshire Shareholders 1988 Our gain in net worth during 1988 was $569 本公司 1988年的净值增加了五亿六 million, or 20.0%. Over the last 24 years (that 千九百万美元，较去年增加了 20.0%， is, since present management took over), our 而过去24年以来(自从现有经营阶层 per-share book value has grown from $19.46 to 接手后)，每股净值从 19元成长到现 $2,974.52, or at a rate of 23.0% compounded 在的 2,974美元，年复合成长率约为 annually. 23.0%。 We　e emphasized in past reports that what 在过去的年报中我们一再强调真正 counts, however, is intrinsic business value - 重要的是企业的真实价值，它代表着 the figure, necessarily an estimate, indicating 我们旗下企业组成份子到底值多少 what all of our constituent businesses are worth. 钱？这个数字绝对是个估计数，根据 By our calculations, Berkshire　 intrinsic 我们内部的估算，目前伯克希尔真实 business value significantly exceeds its book 的价值已大幅超越其帐面价值，过去 value. Over the 24 years, business value has 24 年以来，企业价值成长的速度一直 grown somewhat faster than book value; in 1988, 要比帐面价值成长的幅度要高一点， however, book value grew the faster, by a bit. 但在 1988 年情况有点不同，后者增 加的幅度略高于前者。 Berkshire　 past rates of gain in both book 过去伯克希尔真实与帐面价值成长 value and business value were achieved under 的背景，与现在有很大的不同，若搞 circumstances far different from those that now 不清楚其间的差异，就好象是一位棒 exist. Anyone ignoring these differences makes 球教练在判断高龄 42 岁的中外野手 the same mistake that a baseball manager would 未来潜力时，以他一生的平均打击率 were he to judge the future prospects of a 作为判断依据。 42-year-old center fielder on the basis of his lifetime batting average. Important negatives affecting our prospects 今日我们所面临不利的因素主要有： today are: (1) a less attractive stock market (1)目前的股票市场过热，股价相对 than generally exist