风险分析方法BAYER.pptVIP

Introduction of Safety Review ? page * ? March, 2012 Page * ? Name of presentation ? February 9, 2011 Page * ? Name of presentation ? February 9, 2011 Introduction of Safety Review ? page * ? March, 2012 风险分析方法Risk analysis approach拜耳医药保健有限公司北京工厂BHC Product Supply Beijing Site2012年3月March, 2012 概念-范围Concept - Scope 风险分析是为了找出 The scope of the risk analysis is to find out 任何种类的活动（非活动）可能的错误。 what could be wrong with any kind of activity (and inactivity….), 我们能承受的来自被分析的活动的（最大的）损失what is the (maximum) damage we can suffer from the activity under analysis 如何改进现状 What we can do to improve the situation 这是否安全？Is it safe? 哪一个更安全？Which is safer? 安全还是危险？Safe or dangerous? 多安全才是安全？How much is safety? * 为了确保设备更安全我们应该增加其它设施，在危险时进行控制和预先警示。 To make an equipment safer we should add-on other equipment to control and warn in advance in case of danger. 控制措施越多，设备越安全。 The more the controls, the safer the equipment. 当然，由于控制设施重量太大，飞机也许永远不能起飞…..也许情况会更糟糕…. Well, a plane would never take off due to the weight of the control instruments…..may be it would be even worse…. 这意味着当我们执行我们的活动时，我们已经接受“已知的”风险。 It means we have accept a “known” risk while performing our activity. 通常，我们可以使用确定的方法来评估活动或工艺中可能会有哪些错误。Usually we can use deterministic approach to evaluate what can be wrong with an activity or a process or…. 有时这些过程: Sometimes the processes are: 用确定性的方法来处理太复杂 Too complicated to be treated with deterministic methods 使用确定性的方法费用太高 The deterministic method is too expensive to be used 确定性的方法需要太长时间 The deterministic method requires too long time 所以我们需要分解问题，引入另外的方法：概率性的/统计学方法 So we have to break down the problem and introduce an additional approach: probabilistic/statistical。 统计学的与确定性的Statistic vs. Deterministic dl F dl F 对于自行车的分析，全面的确定性方法是有用的，因为我们能够设想仅能分解为很少的模块…… A full deterministic approach can be useful for the bicycle as we can guess just a few modes to break down….. 一架飞机或者一座核电站有许多不同的可能有缺陷的模块 An airplane or a nuclear power station has MANY different MODES to be defective 统计学的与确