基于灰色粗糙集理论能源消费量综合评价和预测分析.doc

摘 要 综合评价和预测在经济领域和日常生活中具有重要地位，国内外的学者也已 经提出了很多种综合评价方法和预测方法。本文在粗糙集和灰色系统特点和优点 的基础上,介绍了粗糙集理论和灰色系统理论的概念和理论基础，并在理解、综 合现有综合评价中权重的确定方法和预测模型的相关文献的基础上，较系统地介 绍了基于粗糙集理论和灰色系统理论的权重确定方法、原理及应用特点以及预测 模型。 本文主要研究利用灰色系统和粗糙集理论来对平均每人生活能源消费量和 华东地区六省一市的能源消费量进行分析与预测。具体的研究工作如下： 1.提出了基于粗糙集属性约简的灰色关联分析模型，该方法通过属性约简对 数据进行了筛选，剔除冗余信息，减少了计算的工作量； 2.又提出了基于灰色系统和粗糙集理论的综合评价模型，该方法通过灰色关 联度和属性重要度先分别确定一种权重，然后根据组合优化模型将两种权重融合 在一起确定了一种新的属性权重，为华东地区六省一市的能源消费量的综合评价 提供了更为合理的权重系数； 3.最后分别用灰色预测模型和线性模型对下一年的平均每人生活能源消费 量进行了预测，并进行了比较。 关键词：能源消费；灰色系统； 粗糙集；灰色关联分析；灰色 GM (1,1) 模型； 属 性约简；线性模型 I 安徽大学硕士学位论文  基于灰色粗糙集理论的能源消费量的综合评价和预测分析  Abstract Comprehensive evaluation and prediction play important roles in the economic field and in daily life; lots of comprehensive evaluation methods and prediction methods have been putting forward by domestic and foreign scholars. The concepts and theoretical bases of rough set theory and gray system theory are introduced based on their features and benefits, then the method and principle for determining the weight, application characteristics as well as prediction model are introduction systematicly based on the relevant literatures about the existing method for determining the weight and the prediction model. Comprehensive evaluation and forecast methods based on gray rough sets are applying in annual per capita energy consumption of households and energy consumption of six provinces and one city in east China. The concrete research works are as follows: 1 Gray correlation analysis model based on attribute reduction is proposed. The method chooses data by attribute reduction at first and removes redundant information, which reduces the work and calculation time. 2 Comprehensive evaluation model based on gray system and rough set is proposed, the gray correlation grade in the theory of gray system and attribute importance in the theory of rough sets are introduced to definite the weight respectively, and then the two kinds of weights are integrated by portfolio optimization model, which deter