全国雷电灾害分析及雷灾经济损失预测.docVIP

论 文 题目 全国雷电灾害分析及雷灾经济损失预测( 作 者 陈 柏 炎 指导老师 曹 恒 阁 学校名称 湖北市石偃市中学 2010年9月 全国雷电灾害分析及雷灾经济损失预测( 刘佼1,2肖稳，210008 摘 要: 本文利用中国气象局防雷减灾办公室出版的《1998-2008年全国雷电灾害汇编》资料，对1998-2008年全国雷电灾害进行了时间、空间、行业分布、经济损失、人员伤亡等方面的统计分析。结果表明我国近11年雷电灾害总体上呈增长趋势，每年的6-8月为雷灾的高发期；我国雷灾在地域上的分布主要集中在华南沿海地区、华东沿海地区；全国雷灾涉及行业最为严重的是电力行业；近年来因雷电导致的建筑物损害、供电故障、火灾爆炸事故数整体比例为9：5：3；我国近年来所发生雷灾中因雷电致死致伤的人员比例为1：1；最后运用灰色关联法对我国雷灾经济损失作出预测分析。 关键词： 雷灾 雷灾经济损失 分析 预测 Analyses on National Lightning And Forecasts On Lightning Economic Loss LiuJiao1，2 XiaoWenan1，2 ChenHongbing3 (1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education，Nanjing University of Information Science Technology, Nanjing 210044, P. R. China2 School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science Technology, Nanjing 210044, P. R.China 3 Jiangsu Bureau of Meteorology, Nanjing 210008,China) Abstract: This paper statistically analyzed national lightning disasters on time，space，industry distribution and casualties on the basis of 1998-2008 National lightning compiled which published by ffice of Lightning Protection and Disasters Alleviation of China Meteorological Administration. The results indicated that national lightning disasters showed increasing trend in recent 11years, the lightning peak period was from June to August of each year. Geographical distribution of lightning disasters in China mostly concentrated in Southern and Eastern coastal regions.The most severe lightning accidents in China appeared in electrical power industry. The ratio of building damage, power failure, fire and explosion due to lightning occurred in China was about 9:5:3 in recent years. The ratio of deaths and injuries due to lightning is 1:1. Finally, use the gray relational method to forecast the lightning disasters economic losses of China. Key words: lightning disasters lightning disasters economic losses analyse forecast 1.引言 雷电是发生在地球大气中一种猛烈的放电现象，古今中外雷电造成的人员伤亡和建筑物毁坏不计其数。因此，监测大气中雷电现象，认识大气中雷电活动的规律，深入分析雷电造成的灾害对预测雷电灾害和防雷减灾、保护人民的生命财产安全有着重要的意