会展市场预测研究毕业论文.doc

重庆大学硕士学位论文 会展市场预测研究 硕士研究生：刘助忠 指 导 教 师 ：何小洲 副教授 学 科 专 业 ：工商管理 重庆大学工商管理学院 二 OO 五年四月 Master’s Degree Dissertation of Chongqing University Reseach of prediction of Convention and exhibition Master Degree Candidate:liuzhuzhong Supervisor:hexiaozhou Major: Business Administration College of Economics and Business Administration Chongqing University April, 2004 摘  要  作为经济与文化发展的产物，会展业这个属于服务业范畴的新型产业因其较 高的区域社会经济效益而备受关注。自上个世纪 90 年代以来，伴随着对外开放的 扩大和经济持续稳定的发展，我国会展业发展迅速，成为国民经济一个新的增长 点。 但会展业在我国的发展历史还不长，它还不是一个成熟的产业，存在的问题 仍然很多。特别是在我国经济体制改革的过渡时期，会展业在管理体制、理论研 究、专业化、产业布局、市场次序、会展人才等方面的问题较为严重。要解决这 些问题以推进我国会展业的持续、健康发展，理论指导和产业层面上的举措是必 要的。本文在分析了这一产业的发展和研究现状的基础上，运用会展基本理论和 相关预测学的技术方法构建了相应的会展预测理论框架。在此之后，文章又重点 论述了德尔菲预测法、一次指数平滑预测法、回归预测法的预测模型、方法。并 具体应运于实践之中，而且作出了一些有启发意义的探索。 关键词：会展，预测，会展预测，模型，实践应用 I 重庆大学硕士学位论文  英文摘要  ABSTRACT As the result of economy and culture development, this new-type industry which belongs to the category of service trade of the convention and exhibition industry receives much concern because of its social economic benefits of higher area. Since the 1990s last century , follow the enlargement and economy continual and steady development opening to the outside world, the exhibition industry of our country develops rapidly, become a new point of growth of national economy. But the developing history in our country of convention and exhibition industry is still not long, it is not a ripe industry yet, there are still a lot of existing problems. Especially in the transition period of economic system reform of our country, the problem of the convention and exhibition industry in such respects as management system , theoretical research , specialized , industrys overall arrangement , market order , convention and exhibition talent ,etc. is comparatively serious. Solve these problems in order to advance the lasting sound development of the exhibition industry of my country , the action on theoretical direction and industry aspect is essential . This paper uses the basic theori