夏季负荷和气象参数的多维时间序列模型的研究.pdfVIP

夏季负荷与气象参数的多维时间序列模型的研究 周 晖 1 ，王 玮 1 ，钮文洁 1 ，李冬梅 2 1.北京交通大学电气工程学院 北京，100044；2.北京电力公司营销部，北京，100031 MULTIDIMENSIONALTIME SERIES MODEL OF LOAD AND METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN SUMMER 1 1 1 2 ZHOU HUI , WANG WEI , NIU WENJIE , LI DONGMEI 1. School of electric engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044； 2. Beijing electric power corporation, Beijing, 100031 ABSTRACT: To forecast load exactly is necessary for 方各大中城市，以及部分北方地区的夏季负荷，近些 making power supply plan and arranging load in demand-side 年来增长十分迅速。以北京为例，自 1996 年以后， adjuestion. In summer,load is affectd by meteorological 夏季用电需求量（7 月—9 月）始终较之其它季度占 elements greatly.Based on multidimension time series 全年用电量的比重要高，如表 1 所示，这充分说明了 approach,the CAR model is constructed, which could take 夏季用电需求量大。 account into the accumalated influence from temperature and 表 1 各季度全社会用电量比重统计 单位:% inertia action from historic load, meanwhile ,the advantage of Tab.1 seasonal rates of power demand unit: % the model is that its expreaasion is in the form of apparent 年 度 1-3 月 4-6 月 7-9 月 10-12 月 function,which could provide us some quaqutive imformation 1997 24.53% 23.53% 25.71% 26.23% existed between input variable and output variable. 1998 24.11% 22.56% 26.01% 27.32% KEY WORD: Load Forecast ；Meteorological elements; 1999