Class 9 Thurs., Oct. 7.ppt

Class 9: Thurs., Oct. 7 Inference in regression (Ch 10.1-10.2) Confidence intervals for slope Hypothesis test for slope Confidence intervals for mean response Prediction intervals Confidence intervals and the polls I will e-mail HW 5 to you by tomorrow. It will be due Tuesday, Oct. 19th. CPS Wage-Education Data for March 1988 Inference Based on Sample The whole Current Population Survey (25,631 men ages 18-70) is a random sample from the U.S. population (roughly 75 million men ages 18-70). In most regression analyses, the data we have is a sample from some larger (hypothetical) population. We are interested in the true regression line for the larger population. Inference Questions: How accurate is the least squares estimate of the slope for the true slope in the larger population? What is a plausible range of values for the true slope in the larger population based on the sample? Is it plausible that the slope equals a particular value (e.g., 0) based on the sample? Regression Applet: Link on web site under Fun Links. Link entitled Simple Linear Regression. Confidence Intervals Confidence interval: A range of values that are plausible for a parameter given the data. 95% confidence interval: An interval that 95% of the time will contain the true parameter. Approximate 95% confidence interval: Estimate of parameter 2*SE(Estimate of parameter). Approximate 95% confidence interval for slope: For wage-education data, , approximate 95% CI = Interpretation of 95% confidence interval: It is most plausible that the true slope is in the 95% confidence interval. It is possible that the true slope is outside the 95% confidence interval but unlikely; the confidence interval will fail to contain the true slope only 5% of the time in repeated samples. Conf. Intervals for Slope in JMP After Fit Line, right click in the parameter estimates table, go to Columns and click on Lower 95% and Upper 95%. The exact 95%