我国房地产价格波动与利用外资变动关系的实证研究.doc

我国房地产价格波动与利用外资变动关系的实证研究 崔玉平 崔玉平 河北经贸大学金融学硕士。 [摘要与告白] 针对大量外资流入我国房地产市场和房价不断上升的现象，外资与房价的关系成为人们越来越关注的问题。外资流入确实对房地产市场产生重要影响，但是否导致了房价的快速上涨，本文从实证角度对此作了详细的研究。房地产市场中的外资主要是投资性外资，而不是投机性外资；协整检验表明房价上升与外资流入之间存在长期的稳定关系，误差修正模型和基于VAR的脉冲响应分析说明长期和短期内外资流入对房地产价格的推动作用要小于房价产价格上升对外资流入的吸引作用，Granger因果检验更进一步说明了外资流入不是房价上升的直接原因，相反房价上升却是造成外资不断流入房地产市场的重要原因。 The Empirical Research on Relationship of the Real Estate Price Fluctuation and Foreign Capital Change in Our Country Cui Yu-ping (Hebei University of Economics and Busyness, Hebei, Shijiazhuang, 050061, China) Abstract: Facing the phenomenon of a large of foreign capital inflowing the real estate market and house prices rise, the relationship of house prices and foreign capital has become increasingly concerned. The foreign capital flowing in the real estate market did have a significant impact, but whether has caused the house price fast rise. This article has done the detailed research regarding this from empirical diagnosis angle. In the real estate market, foreign capital mainly is the investment capital, but not the speculative capital. Cointegration test shows the house price rise and the foreign capital inflow has the long-term stable relationship. Error correction model and the impulse response analysis based on the VAR model show that within the long-term and the short-term, the impetus function of foreign capital inflow to real estate prices rise is smaller than the attractive effect of house price rising to foreign capital inflow. Granger causality test further illustrates the foreign capital inflow is not the direct cause of house price rise, but house price rise actually is the major reasons causing foreign capital flows to the real estate market. 一、引言 目前，在我国经济连续高增长和人民币不断升值的背景下，大量外资流入国内，进入房地产市场，对我国房地产市场产生了重要影响。2005年我国的FDI中，房地产业合同项目2120个，合同金额19.4亿美元，实际使用金额5.42亿美元，合同金额占FDI合同金额总量的10.26%。全国房地产开发利用外资由1999年的256.6亿元上升到2006年底的394.44亿元，年平均增长6.71%，2007年1-4月份外商直接投资达125亿余元，同比约增136%。据国家外管局调查统计显示2004年外资占上海全部购房资金的比例达23%。与此同时，房地产价格也不断上涨，由199