中国轿车市场对外开放的经济分析_.docVIP

中国轿车市场对外开放的经济分析* 李刚 北京大学中国经济研究中心98级硕士研究生 摘要 改革开放以来，我国汽车消费需求进入快速增长时期，同时，汽车工业又是受到政府严重贸易保护的部门，这种保护为中国的汽车工业发展创造了一定空间。但高度的保护也影响了资源的合理配置及效率的提高，带来了巨大的社会福利损失。在经济全球化的背景下，我国必须分阶段降低进口关税，开放汽车市场，通过其他途径来发展民族汽车工业。因此，本文试图从不完全竞争的市场结构下探讨关税政策变化对国家福利水平的影响。本文构建了一个两期博弈模型，集中讨论国产汽车和进口汽车之间的竞争。均衡结果表明，在不完全竞争的市场结构下，对比于完全竞争，关税的削减，对于一国总的福利水平的影响是不确定的。实证研究的结果支持了政府对于中国汽车市场应采取对外开放的政策这一观点。 关键词：轿车市场 关税保护 不完全竞争 福利分析 An Economic Analysis on the Opening of Chinese Car Market Abstract The demand for car in China has experienced rapid growth since reform. Meanwhile, automobile industry is the most highly protected sector in China. Long term protection has created the opportunities for the development of national car industry but could lead to inefficiency and social welfare loss. There is pressure from entering WTO to open the domestic automobile market. Thus the Chinese government has to phase out the automobile import tariffs while encouraging development of a local auto industry by other means. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to discuss the welfare change that would result from tariff reduction. The two period model formulated here focuses on competition between domestic cars and imports. The equilibrium concept employed is subgame perfection on both the supply side and the demand side. Contrast to perfect competition, our theory is ambiguous about welfare changes resulting from this policy under imperfect competition. The empirical results suggest that our government should open the domestic car market to the rivals in order to reduce the welfare loss from the protection. Key words: car market tariff protection imperfect competition welfare change 目录 1 引言 2 2 中国轿车市场的概况 3 ·市场结构 3 ·政府政策 7 3 文献综述 10 ·关税政策 10 ·描述需求系统的方法 11 ·福利近似估计的方法 12 4 模型 13 ·基本模型 13 ·关税政策对国内生产和进口的影响的比较静态分析 16 ·关税政策对利润的影响 17 ·关税政策对本国福利的影响 17 5 实证检验 19 ·需求函数 19 ·价格—关税方程 21 ·需求函数估计结果 21 ·价格—关税方程估计结果 22 ·福利影响 23 6 结论 25 参考文献 26 数学附录 28 Content 1 Introduction 2 2 The Status of Chinese Car Market 3 ?Market Struct