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外交学院2009级 硕士研究生学位论文 建构中的东北亚危机管理模式 ——以天安舰事件为例 专业：国 际 关 系 方向：当代国际关系 导师： 教授 作者： 摘 要 冷战结束后，世界安全形势发生了深刻变化。传统安全问题仍然存在，非传统安全问题不断涌现。随着全球化深入推进，国际危机频频发生，并且以其高威胁性、高扩散性、高紧迫性等特点，对人类社会构成重大安全挑战。如何应对和有效管理国际危机，成为当今国际安全中的重要课题，兼具冷战遗留特征的东北亚安全局势也同样面临这一问题。 在东北亚危机管理的历史中，出现过一些基本的危机管理模式，例如谈判、第三方干预、威慑、有限战争等。本文首先通过梳理以往案例，呈现出这些管理模式，然后借助天安舰事件的实例分析验证了相关模式的有效性，进而提出建构中的东北亚危机管理模式，即以国际谈判为主导，选择性地引入第三方干预，间或伴有威慑战略的管理模式。该模式的提出为管理东北亚地区国际危机提供了宏观模型。需要指出的是，在未来的东北亚危机管理模式建构中，出于地区稳定和管理效果的考虑，威慑战略不应成为主要选择之一。 此外，本文还认为，要实现东北亚地区的长期安全与稳定，需要践行一条经由危机管理通往地区安全机制的可能之路。六方会谈为东北亚安全机制的建立提供了基础性框架，在此基础上，建构东北亚安全机制具有重要的意义。 关键词：东北亚；危机管理模式；天安舰；六方会谈；安全机制 Abstract Since the end of the Cold War, world security situation has changed profoundly. As traditional security issues persisting, non-traditional security issues are continuously emerging. With the further advance of globalization, the frequent occurrence of international crises featuring by high-threatening, fast proliferating and high urgency challenge the security of human society significantly. How to effectively manage these international crises is an important issue in the study of international security. Printed with the Cold War, the security situation of Northeast Asia is facing the same problem. In the history of crisis management in Northeast Asia, there were some basic crisis management modes, such as negotiation, third-party intervention, deterrence, limited war. This paper will firstly analyze cases, demonstrating the management modes. Secondly, takes Cheonan issue as an example to prove the validity of the relevant modes. Thirdly, the paper will construct the proposed Northeastern Asia crisis management mode: international negotiations are the dominant force in the management strategy with selective third party intervention and seldom deterrence. The model proposed for the management of international crises in Northeast Asia provides a macro model. It should be noted that in the future construction of crisis management mod