基于模糊Petri网的网络风险评估模型高翔祝跃飞刘胜利费金龙刘龙.pdfVIP

第 34 卷第 Z1 期 通 信 学 报 Vol.34 No. Z1 2013 年 8 月 Journal on Communications August 2013 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-436x.2013.z1.016 Petri 高翔，祝跃飞，刘胜利，费金龙，刘龙 (解放军信息工程大学 数学工程与先进计算国家重点实验室，河南 郑州 450002) ：针对网络安全风险评估过程中存在的复杂性，以资产、脆弱性和威胁为安全评估的关键因素，建立安全 分析的层次化评估指标体系。引入可信度概念，提出了一种基于模糊 Petri 网的安全风险评估模型以及模糊推理 算法，同时结合层次分析法，采取定性与定量分析相结合的方法进行安全评估。实例分析表明：与传统的综合风 险评估方法相比，基于模糊 Petri 网的风险评估方法给出的结果更加准确和科学。因此，该方法更适合应用于实 际的网络系统风险评估中。 ：安全风险评估；模糊Petri 网；建模；层次分析法 ：TP301 ：A ：1000-436X(2013)Z1-0126-07 Risk assessment model based on fuzzy Petri nets GAO Xiang, ZHU Yue-fei, LIU Sheng-li, FEI Jin-long, LIU Long (State Key Laboratory of Mathematical Engineering and Advanced Computing, PLA Information Engineering University, Zhengzhou 450002, China) Abstract: Aiming at the complex in the process of network security risk assessment, the asset, vulnerability and threat were used as the major factors in security assessment to establish the hierarchical index system for security assessment. The concept of credibility was introduced, and the security risk assessment model and fuzzy reasoning algorithm based on fuzzy Petri net were also proposed, making use of fuzzy Petri nets method joined together with the AHP to analyze the question, and combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis together. The example analysis shows that the ob- tained results are more accurate and scientific compared with traditional assessment methods. Therefore, this method is an effective network system risk assessment method. Key words: security risk assessment; fuzzy Petri net; modeling; analytic hierarchy process