机动车驾驶人道路交通违法行为的博弈分析.pdfVIP

第12卷 第增1期 交通运输系统工程与信息 Vol郾12 Sup.1 2012 年6 月 Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology June 2012 文章编号: 1009鄄6744 (2012) Sup.1鄄0086鄄05 机动车驾驶人道路交通违法行为的博弈分析 张万安,肖跃秀* (吉安市公安局 交通警察支队,江西 吉安343000) 摘要:摇 道路交通是由人、车、路、环境等四大要素构成的动态系统.其中人是主体,因为 遵章守法的是人,违法肇事的还是人,人始终占主导地位.从近年道路交通事故分析来 看,驾驶人超载(超员)、超车和超速“三超冶现象是引发重特大交通事故的主要原因.本 文着重从当前机动车驾驶人交通违法肇事现状出发,从博弈论的角度来分析机动车驾 驶人违章肇事屡禁不止的原因,探讨在市场经济条件下的策略问题. 关键词:摇 公路运输;交通安全;驾驶人;交通违法;政府监督;博弈 中图分类号:摇 U491 文献标识码:A摇 Causes and Countermeasures of Motor Vehicle Drivers Violations Analysis Based on Game Theory ZHANG Wan鄄an,XIAO Yue鄄xiu (Traffic Police Division,Ji爷an Public Security Bureau,Ji爷an343000,Jiangxi,China) Abstract:摇 Transportation is a dynamic system,which is mainly composed by four elements: persons, vehicles,roads and environment,Personsarethemainpartofroadtrafficbecausetheyaretheobserversand violators of the law. From the data of road traffic accident recent years, overloading (overcrowding), overtaking and speeding phenomenon are major causes of serious accidents. This paper presents the current situation of motor vehicle driver traffic violations. Andthen the gametheory isusedto analyzethe causes of motorvehicledrivertrafficviolations. Inthelastsection,itdiscussesthecountermeasuresoftrafficviolations under the market economy conditions. Key words:摇 highway transportation; traffic safety; driver; traffic violations; government supervision; game theory CLCnumber:摇 U491 Document code:摇 A 收稿日期:2011鄄12鄄06摇 摇 摇 摇 修回日期:2012鄄02鄄03摇 摇 摇 摇 录用日期:2012鄄02鄄24 作