灰色数列GM(1%2c1)模型在脑梗塞发病率预测应用.pdfVIP

Asia-Pacific Youth Conference on Communication Technology 2010 (APYCCT 2010) Grey Series GM (1, 1) Model in Prediction of Cerebral Infarction Incidence Rate Liangliang Ma, Fupeng Tian School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest University for Nationalities, Lanzhou 730030, China Email: mll 198684@126.com, tfp@ Abstract: Objective To give a comprehensive description of GM (1, 1) modeling for prediction of cerebral infraction, and predict the changing trend of the incidence of cerebral infarction. Methods An example of predicting the rate of cerebral infraction is employed to describe the technique. Using the grey series GM (1, 1) forecast model Y (t) x(1) u / a ea (t 1) u / a , we predict the trend of the month incidence of cerebral   infarction from January, 2007 to December 2010. Results Based on the incidence of cerebral infarction from 0.0276(t 1)  January, 2001 to December, 2006, we made the grey systemic forecast model. Y (t) 8.8876e 8.8876 . The fitting results show that the precision is eligible ( C 0.418778 , P 0.815383 ). The incidence of cerebral infraction in Haixizhou region tends to increase month by month. Conclusion GM (1, 1) model can be well used to the short-term prediction of cerebral infraction, the results show that the incidence of cerebral infarction of latest seven years is upwards continuously, related departments should enhance the prevention work. Keywords: grey system; forecast model; residual test; cerebral infarction; incidence 灰色数列GM(1, 1)模型在脑梗塞发病率预测中的应用