要以河南省南阳市为例张志1袁李江风2袁龚健2.pdfVIP

安徽农业科学袁允燥怎则灶葬造 燥枣 粤灶澡怎蚤 粤早则蚤援 杂糟蚤援 圆园园6袁 34渊20冤院5319-5321 责任编辑 胡玉冰 责任校对 胡剑胜 耕地需求量预测方法探讨 以河南省南阳市为例 要要 要 1 2 2 张志 李江风 龚健 中国地质大学研究生院 湖北武汉 中国地质大学资源学院 湖北武汉 袁 袁 1. 袁 430074 曰2. 袁 430074冤 摘要 通过分析粮食需求预测法与数学模型法这 种常见耕地需求量预测方法的优点与不足 以河南省南阳市为例 提出了基于预 2 袁 袁 留法的耕地需求量预测方法遥 关键词 耕地需求量 粮食需求 数学模型 预留法 曰 曰 曰 中 分类号 F301 文献标识码 A 文章编号 0517-6611 2006冤20-5319-03 Study on the Prediction Method of Cultivated Land Demand ZHANG Zhi et al (Graduate School of China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Hubei 430074) Abstract In the paper the advantage and disadvantage of the prediction method of food security and mathematic model used in the predication of the demand of cultivated land were analyzed and an new method of Supply 蛳demand Balance Analysis was put forward to predict the future demand of the cultivated land in Nanyang city. Combined qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, the method was abided by the principle of restriction of supply and induction of demand of cultivated land, which satisfied with the cultivated land use requirement of national economic development and key constructive proj ects. So it ensured that the predicted value was more dynamic, scientific and flexible than before. Key words Prediction of cultivated land; Food security; Mathematic model 曰Balance analysis of supply蛳demand 耕地指标是土地利用总体规划调整指标中最重要的指 的方法主要采用趋势预测法与灰色预测法 其中趋势预测 遥 [1] 标 上轮土地利用总体规划