Optimalinvestmentinmulti-speciesprotectionwhen：最优投资的多物种保护当.pdfVIP

Optimal investment in multi-species protection when species interact in an ecosystem 1 Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, USA Department of Economics, University of Heidelberg, Germany Paper presented at the Conference Healthy Ecosystems, Healthy People – Linkages between Biodiversity, Ecosystem Health and Human Health, June 6-11, 2002, Washington, D.C., and at the 2 World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, June 24-27, 2002 Monterey, CA Abstract. This paper studies optimal investment in multi-species protection when species interact in an ecosystem and there is uncertainty about the exact nature of species interaction. The analysis is based on a model of stochastic species extinc- tion in which survival probabilities are interdependent. Individual species protection plans can increase a species’ survival probability within certain limits and contingent upon the existence or absence of other species. Protection plans are costly and the conservation budget is fixed. It is assumed that human well-being depends solely on the services provided by one particular species, but other species contribute to overall ecosystem functioning and thus influence the first species’ survival probabil- ity. One result is that it may be ecologically and economically optimal to invest in conservation plans also for those species that do not directly contribute to human well-being. Another result is that taking species interaction into account may reverse standard results obtained under the assumption of independent species. For exam- ple, the rank ordering of spending priorities among different species protection plans may be completely reversed by species interaction. How