THEEFFECTOFBUDGETDEFICITSHOCKON…：预算赤字冲击的影响….pdfVIP

International Journal of Business and Development Studies Vol. 3, No. 1, (2011) p .41-58 The Effect of Budget Deficit Shock on Government Spending: An Empirical Case in Indonesia Jaka Sr iyana∗ Abstract This paper aims to investigate the effect of budget deficit shock on government spending in Indonesia. For this propose, this reasearch uses an alternative error correction model based on loss function of government spending. The model assumes the short run disequilibrium, in which shock variables may play an D important role. A spesific loss function model is applied to develop the long run government hypothetical model. Using data of the I period 1970-2010, the empirical model shows that real GDP, tax revenue and multi period shock of budget deficit are statistically S significant in determining the government spending, both for operating and development spending. In other words, this finding f also shows the significant impact of unanticipated of budget deficit on the government spending. It implies a weaknes of government finance management, in which government spending has not o created new tax sources. Keywords: Fiscal, Government, Spending, Budget, Deficit, Policy. e JEL Classification: H.53; H.62; C.22 v 1. Introduction i Indonesian economy has experi