大连气候变暖及其对农业的影响.pdfVIP

Chinese Journal ofEcology 2009, 28(5): 933-937 * 1* * 1 侯国成 王秀萍 (大连市气象局, 大连 116001) 选取大连地区7个观测站 1961 2007年历年月平均气温最高气温最低气温 0! 积温 10! 积温 0! 负积温和无霜 等指标,统计分析了近 47年其变化特征, 研究了大连地区热量资源对气候变暖的响应及其对农业生产的影响结果表明: 月平均 气温最高气温最低气温 0 ! 积温 10 ! 积温 1988 2007年比 1961 1987年的平 均值明显增高(多),尤以最低气温增幅最大,冬季升温幅度大于夏季,大连地区气候变暖主 要来自最低气温升高的贡献; 0 ! 负积温绝对值明显减少; 初霜推后,终霜提前, 无霜期 日数增多; 20世纪 80年代后期大连气候明显变暖,尤其是 21世纪初异常偏暖事件频发, 热 量资源增加,对冬季大棚蔬菜等设施农业的生产有利,病虫等越冬存活率上升,农业投入增 加,气候变暖对大连地区农业影响是利弊并存 气候变暖; 农业生产; 大连 S162 A 1000-4890(2009) 05-0933-05 1 Climate warm ing and its effects on agricultural production in Dalian. HOU Guocheng, 1 1 ANG Xiuping ( D alian M eteorolog ical B ereau, D alian 116001, Ch ina ) . Ch inese J ournal of E cology, 2009, 28(5): 933-937. Abstract: By using the 1961-2007 observation data of monthly mean temperature, monthly meanmaxmi um andminmi um temperature, accumulative temperature of 0! , 0! and 10 ! , and frostfreeperiod from 7meteorological stations inDalian, thevariation characteristics of these clmi ate indices in last47 yearswere analyzed, and the responses ofDalian thermal re sources to clmi atewarm ing aswellasthe effectsof clmi atewarming on the agriculturalproduction inDalianwere studied. In 1988-2007, themonthlymean temperature, monthlymeanmaxmi um andminmi um temperature, and accumulative temperature of 0 ! and 10 ! in Dalian in creasedmarkedly, comparedwith those in 1961-1987. Themonthlymeanminm