关于滑坡预测预报方法的思考.pdfVIP

( ) 2004/ 12 02 011806 　Journal of Engineering Geology 　工程地质学报 关于滑坡预测预报方法的思考 杨志法 陈 剑 ( 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 　北京 　100029) 摘 　要 　滑坡是世界上十大自然灾害之一 ,容易造成极大的经济损失和人员伤亡 ,对社会危害很大。目前有关它的预测预报 的效果还不甚理想。滑坡灾害的诱发因素包括自然因素和人为因素 ,而人为因素主要与人类工程活动有关 ;在一定的地质地 形条件下 , 自然诱发因素则主要是降雨,特别是暴雨。通过对滑坡预测预报方法的哲学思考 ,作者认为今后应该加强“由天预 报地”,即以降雨预报结果来推测区域滑坡发生的概率方法的研究。将该方法与单点滑坡的监测预报法结合起来 ,可望进一 步提高滑坡预测预报的水平。 关键词 　滑坡 降雨 预测预报 哲学思考 中图分类号:P642. 22 　　文献标识码 :A THOUGHTS ON THE PREDICTION OR FORECAST OF LANDSLIDES YANG Zhifa 　CHEN Jian ( ) Institute of Geology and Geophysics , Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 　100029 Abstract 　As one of the top ten natural disasters , landslides have great impacts on the environment and on societies , and often cause vast economic losses and casualties. Many methods have been developed for the prediction or forecast of landslides ; however , results are not very satisfactory. Two kinds of triggering factors are currently considered in predic tion or forecast of landslides : natural and man - made. Under given geological and geomorphic conditions , rainfall be comes a key natural factor. Based on philosophical thoughts on the prediction or forecast of landslides , the authors sug gest that the method of ”weather - slope ”forecast , in which probability of occurrence of landslides was calculated based on the forecast of rainfall , be enhanced ,. As expected , by integrating the ”weather slope ”forecast with the monitoring of landslides , the resulting method could improve the accuracy of prediction or forecast of landslides. Key words 　Landslides ,Rainfall ,Prediction or forecast ,Philosophic thoughts 会带来的危害性也在增大。然而 ,关于滑坡预测预 1 引 言 报的