大风浪中航行船舶危险度估算模型_刘大刚.pdfVIP

第5 卷 第3 期 交 通 运 输 工 程 学 报 Vol5 No3 2005 年9 月 Journal of Traffic and T ransportation Engineering Sept. 2005 : 67 - 637( 2005) 03-0083- 04 2 刘大刚 , 徐东华 , 吴兆麟 ( , 6026; 2 , 600 ) : 根据风险分析理论, 结 模糊综 评定数学模型, 提出了一种对大风浪中航行船舶的危险 度进行定量估算的模型在进行了大量的专家问卷调查后, 得到了客滚船燕京轮在大风和大浪 的作用下, 可能发生不同等级事故的模糊关系矩阵, 对该轮在大风浪中的不同航行方案进行了危险 度的实际计算结果显示, 当该轮遇到大风浪时, 按正常航线行驶, 发生事故的风险度较大; 按习惯 的北上避风方案绕航, 风险度最小; 而按以上两方案的折衷方案行驶, 有较大风险此方法可以较 好地对船舶在大风浪中的危险状况进行定量直观地描述, 可供船舶驾驶员和船舶安全管理者用来 掌握大风浪中航行船舶的风险状况, 进而有效实施风险决策 : 交通安全; 航行船舶; 大风浪; 安全管理; 危险度估算; 模糊综 评定 : U 698 : A Risk degree assessment model of navigating ship on heavy sea 2 Liu Da-gang , Xu Dong-hua , Wu Zhao-lin ( School of Navigation, Dalian Maritime Universit y, Dalian 6026, China; 2Liaoning Province M arine Safety Agency, Dalian 600 , China) Abstract: Based on the theories of risk assessment and fuzzy comprehensive assessment, a new model of quantitative assessment to compute the risk degree of navigating ship on heavy sea w as put forw ard. Using expert questionnaire method, the fuzzy relation matrix of occurring accident in different levels for a certain Ro/ Ro vessel navigating on heavy sea w as obtained, the risk degrees of different routes w ere calculated. T he results show that on heavy sea the vessel faces a bigger risk degree on normal route, it has least risk degree on customary go-north route, it has a relative bigger risk degree on the compromise route of the tw o routes. It can be seen that the model can describe the risk degree of ship navigating on heavy sea quantitatively and objectively, it is useful for ship risk