基于生态足迹法的移民安置区生态承载力研究_以丹江口水库工程淅川库区为例.pdfVIP

第 29 卷第 3 期 水 利 水 电 科 技 进 展 2009 年 6 月 Vol . 29 No . 3 Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources Jun . 200　9 DOI :10 . 3880/ j . issn .. 2009 . 03 . 009 基于生态足迹法的移民安置区生态承载力研究 ———以丹江口水库工程淅川库区为例 贾永飞 ,施国庆 ,孙中艮,王慧娟 河海大学中国移民研究中心 ,江苏 南京 　210098 摘要 :基于生态足迹法的计算模型 ,计算分析了丹江 口水库工程淅川库区 2000～2006 年的生态足 迹和生态承载力 ,并利用灰色预测方法对库区 2007～2013 年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行预测 , 详细分析由移民安置引起的该地区生态承载力的变化 。计算结果表明 ,随着移民数量的不断增多 , 生态赤字将会不断扩大 ,如不采取适当措施 ,该地区将长期处于不可持续发展状态 。最后从实施二 次移民、调整产业结构等 6 个方面提出减小库区生态赤字的措施 。 关键词 :生态足迹 ;水库移民;生态承载力 ;可持续发展 ;灰色预测模型 ;丹江口水库 中图分类号 :C9205 　　　文献标识码 :A 　　　文章编号 2009 030032 05 Study on ecological carrying capacity in resettlement areas based on ecological footprint method —taking Xichuan reservoir area of Danjiangkou Reservoir as example/ /J IA Yongfei , SHI Guoqing , SUN Zhonggen , WAN G Huij uan National Research Center for Resettlement , Hohai University , Nanjing 210098 , China Abstract : Taking the Danjiangkou Reservoir as an example , the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the Xichuan reservoir area from 2000 to 2006 are analyzed based on the ecological footprint method. The ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity from 2007 to 2013 are also analyzed with a gray forecast model . The change of ecological carrying capacity due to reservoir resettlement in this area is analyzed in detail . The ecological deficits will continue to grow with the continuously increasing number of resettlements. The area will enter a state of unsustainable development if proper measures are not taken . Finally , measures to improve the ecological deficit are suggested from six perspectives , including additional resettlement and readj usting the industrial structure . Key words : ecological footprint ; reservoir resettlement ; ecological carrying capacity ; sustainable development ; gray forecast model ; Danjiangkou Reservoir 生态足迹法是对可持续发展的一种定量测度方 量化度量和预测有重要的意义 。 法