(海岸线)上海崇明东滩岸线演变分析及趋势预测_李行.pdfVIP

40 2 ( ) Vol. 40 No.2 2010 3 Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition) Mar. 2010 上海崇明东滩岸线演变分析及趋势预测 李 行,周云轩, 况润元 , 200062 :, , 1987 2006 6Landsat2 5 TM , , , , , 2010 2015 :( 1) , , , 22.0 m/ a, 247. 2 m/ a;(2)4 km ;(3) ;(4) 10 m , , : ;; GIS; ; :X372. 51 : : 16712 5888(2010)022 04172 08 Analysis and Trend Prediction of Shoreline Evolution in Chongming Dongtan, Shanghai LI Xing, ZHOU Yun2xuan, KU NG Run2yuan State Key Laborator y of Estuarine and Coa stal Research, E ast China N ormal University , Shanghai 200062, China Abstr act: Understanding Dongtan shoreline evolution has important significance for Dongtan wetland conservation and utilization. Based on object2oriented method, the shorelines of Dongtan are extracted from 6 scenes of Landsat2TM satellite images from 1987, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2003, and 2006, respectively. To model the shoreline changes, the authors developed an orthogonal2transect method, with which a series of transect is formed at a regular interval along 1987 shorelineand each transect goes along the direction parallel to the topographic gradient. The transect is then modeled with a graphics based fitting method and the shoreline dynamics are then analyzed. In addition, the spatial position of shorelines in 2010 and 2015 are also predicted. The results indicate that the shorelines of Dongtan are divided into the eroding segment in the south and accreting segment in the east and north. The eroding shoreline segments basically maintain unaltered and the accreting shoreline segments continue to expand by gradually decreasing speed. The maximum erosion rate and the maximum accretion