预测香港台风季节何时结束的概念模式.pdfVIP

Reprint 493 預測香港颱風季節何時結束的概念模式 何嘉玲 第十七屆粵港澳氣象科技研討會報告， 中國，澳門，2003 年 1 月22-23 日 預測香港颱風季節何時結束的概念模式 何嘉玲 香港天文台 摘要 香港天文台在2002年年初所做的研究顯示，香港颱風季節開始的早或遲，與厄 爾尼諾南方濤動(ENSO)、平流層準兩年振蕩(QBO)及大氣環流的變異有相當的關係。 本文探討這些氣候因子對香港颱風季節何時結束的影響。 本文將風季每年結束的日期與前期赤道太平洋上不同Nino區域的海温距平作相 關分析，計算風季遲、早或正常結束的概率，並分析低、高空流場距平的合成圖，以 了解風季早或遲結束時的大氣環流變化。本文介紹天文台所發展的一個預測風季何時 結束的概念模式。 A conceptual model for forecasting the cessation of the tropical cyclone season in Hong Kong Joly K.L. Ho Hong Kong Observatory Abstract A study in early 2002 by the Hong Kong Observatory found that the time of onset of the tropical cyclone season in Hong Kong was influenced by El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), as well as anomalies in atmospheric circulation. The present study explores the impact of these climatic factors on the time of cessation of the tropical cyclone season in Hong Kong. The date (in pentad) of the time of cessation in each year is correlated with sea surface temperature anomalies in the different Niño areas in the equatorial Pacific at different lead times. Contingency tables to give the probability of occurrence of early, normal and late cessation are constructed. Composite maps of low as well as upper level wind field anomalies are plotted to examine the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with early and late cessation. A conceptual model developed by the Hong Kong Observatory for forecasting the cessation of tropical cyclone season in Hong Kong will a