滑坡的易滑度分区及其概率预报模式.pdfVIP

第24 卷 第13 期 岩石力学与工程学报 Vol.24 No.13 2005 年7 月 Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering July ，2005 滑坡的易滑度分区及其概率预报模式 陈 剑，杨志法，刘衡秋 ( 中国科学院 地质与地球物理研究所工程地质力学重点实验室，北京 100029) 摘要：滑坡的发生主要由地形、地质和降雨三方面因素决定。基于区域地质–气象耦合分析的思路，有可能提高 区域性滑坡的预报精度。首先通过将降雨条件和地质环境条件相结合的方法，提出一种新的滑坡概率预报模式， 利用数理统计分析，提出利用最大24 h 雨强和前15 d 实效降雨量作为滑坡灾害发生的短期预报判据；然后以重庆 市区作为研究对象，选择岩性组合、地形坡度、边坡形态、岩体结构和水文地质五大因素及其21 种状态为预测变 量，利用信息量法进行了易滑度的分区；最后，对概率预报滑坡的可行性进行了实例分析和探讨。 关键词：工程地质；滑坡；降雨；易滑度分区；信息量法；概率预报 中图分类号：P 642 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000 –6915(2005)13 –2392 –05 LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ZONING AND ITS PROBABILISTIC FORECAST CHEN Jian ，YANG Zhi-fa ，LIU Heng-qiu (Institute of Geology and Geophysics ，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100029，China) Abstract ：How to predict and forecast the landslide hazard effectively is always a key point for prevention from casualty and economic loss caused by landslides. Based on the coupling analysis of the geology and meteorology， it is possible to improve the precision of the landslide forecast. The occurrence of landslides is mainly controlled by the following three factors ：topography ，geology and rainfall. A new method of landslide probabilistic forecast is proposed considering the combination of geologic environment with weather conditions. The urban area of Chongqing ，which is one of the cities with most serious landslides in China ，is taken as the study example. Taking into account the geologic environmental factors such as slope gradient ，slope shape，lithology combination ， structures of rock mass and hydrologic geology，the landslide susceptibility zona