逐日降水量模拟在甘蔗气候风险分析中的应用.pdfVIP

Vol No Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas Mar doi j cnki WeaGETS d S A Application of daily precipitation simulation in the climatic risk analysis of sugarcane Liu Wu MO Jiayao MO Jun Laibin Meteorological Bureau of Guangxi Province Laibin Guangxi China Abstract Using the random weather generator WeaGETS to simulate the daily precipitation sequences in the past years in Laibin the simulated results compared with the measured data in last years Application of the simulated sequence analyzed the effect of precipitation to the sugarcane production in Laibin The results showed that The relative error of the simulated annual average precipitation was between The simulated monthly rainfall was obvi ous correlation with the actuality The daily maximal precipitation and its change trend were trust The difference between simulated each level rainy days with the real measured ones was days The simulated effect of daily precipita tion probability for below moderate rain was better than the above heavy rain In short the simulated precipitation was close to the measured one So it can be used in the climatic statistical analysis Under the assurance ratio the rainfall in each stage of seeding tillering jointing and maturation of sugarcane was accounted and of the stage crop water requirements respectively In each growth stage the no drought probability was the light drought probability was the moderate drought probability was the severe drought probability was