State of Utah Long Term Projections Model System课件.pptVIP

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State of Utah Long Term Projections Model System课件.ppt

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State of Utah Long Term Projections Model System T. Ross Reeve Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget November 26, 2002 Utah Long Term Projections Long term demographic economic projections program is housed at the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget Projections Website: ernor.state.ut.us/dea/Projections/projections.html Documentation: ernor.state.ut.us/dea/publications/MODEL/Model.htm Overview UPED: Utah Process Economic Demographic model has a 30 year legacy Continuous Development Consistent Economic Demographic Projections Employment Method is Both Top Down Bottom Up: Relates Utah’s projected inter-industry structure to that of the nation; SR-LR, events, industries Baseline, Impact, Scenario Analysis Capabilities Planning Models Quality Growth Efficiency Tools Utah Planning DistrictsUPED Model Regions Utah Planning DistrictsUPED Model Regions Bear River: Box Elder, Cache, Rich Wasatch Front: Davis, Morgan, Salt Lake, Tooele, Weber Mountainland: Summit, Utah, Wasatch Central: Juab, Millard, Piute, Sanpete, Sevier, Wayne Southwest: Beaver, Garfield, Iron, Kane, Washington Uintah Basin: Daggett, Duchesne, Uintah Southeast: Carbon, Emery, Grand, San Juan Projection Process Model Estimation, Calibration Projection Design UPED Model System Capabilities Baseline Projection Impact Projection Self Calibration Historical Parameter Estimates Target or Goal Seeking Confidence Intervals Data Sources Utah Population Estimates Committee Bureau of Vital Records Department of Workforce Services Board of Higher Education L.D.S. Church Bureau of the Census Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Labor Statistics UPED ModelParameters and Variables Variables Produced Demographic Parameters Exogenous Basic Employment Variables Economic Parameters Variables Produced Population Temporarily Present Non-Residents Temporarily Absent Residents Births Deaths Natural Increase Population Employment Related In and Out Migration Non-employment Re