岩溶隧道突水突泥预报综合评估.pdfVIP

第59卷 第4期 铁 道 标 准 设 计 Vol.59 No.4 2015年4月 RAILWAY STANDARD DESIGN Apr. 2015 文章编号:1004 2954(2015)04 0072 07 岩溶隧道突水突泥预报综合评估 舒 森 (中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司,成都 610031) 摘 要:基于层次分析法建立岩溶隧道突水突泥预报综合评估的模型,分析发生突水突泥的地质因素、综合预报方 法及预报解译因素,通过对它们之间联系的剖析,研究各项预报解译因素在评估突水突泥中的影响权值,根据不同 预报解译因素的评价,结合其在整个评估体系的影响权值,得到被评估段落的突水突泥的综合评估结论。 研究表 明,基于层次分析法的评估可以灵活系统的根据综合预报的各项解译因素,综合评估岩溶段落突水突泥发生的可 能性,可灵活应用于动态实时综合预报评估。 关键词:岩溶隧道; 突水突泥; 综合评估; 层次分析法 + 中图分类号:U456.3 3 文献标识码:A DOl:10.13238/ j.issn.1004-2954.2015.04.019 Comprehensive Assessment of Prediction of Water and Mud Bursting in Karst Tunnel SHU Sen (China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co. ,Ltd. ,Cheng du610031,China) Abstract:Amodelisestablishedforcomprehensiveevaluationofpredictionofwaterandmudburstingin karst tunnel based on AHP to analyze geological factors for water and mud bursting,the comprehensive prediction andforecast interpretation. With the analysisof interaction betweenthem,the interpretation of various factors is studied to assess the impact weight of water and mud bursting. According to the evaluation of different forecast interpretations together with the impact weight of the entire assessment system,comprehensive assessment conclusions are obtained from the assessed section. Studies show that hierarchy-based assessment can be used for comprehensive forecast interpretation of various factors,to assess the possibility of water and mudbursting in karst section,andto assessdynamically theprediction in real-time Key words:Karst tunnel;Water and mud bursting; Comprehensive asses