2009基于粒计算的电力系统中长期负荷动态聚类预测模型.pdfVIP

第 33 卷 第 20 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 33 No. 20 2009 年 12 月 Power System Technology Dec. 2009 文章编号：1000-3673 （2009 ）20-0120-05 中图分类号：TM615 ；TM744 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·40 基于粒计算的 电力系统中长期负荷动态聚类预测模型 1 2 2 顾洁 ，杨熠娟 ，施伟国 （1．上海交通大学 电子信息与电气工程学院，上海市 闵行区 200240 ； 2．上海市南供电公司，上海市 徐汇区 201100 ） Dynamic Clustering Model for Medium- and Long-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Granular Computing 1 2 2 GU Jie ，YANG Yi-juan ，SHI Wei-guo （1．School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering，Shanghai Jiao Tong University，Minhang District ， Shanghai 200240，China ；2 ．Shinan Power Supply Company of SMPEC，Xuhui District ，Shanghai 201100，China ） ABSTRACT: In order to improve the accuracy of load forecasting in the context of uncertain environment, a granular computing based dynamic clustering model (DCM), in which the clustering analysis is integrated with time series data mining, is proposed. The proposed DCM is conductive to eliminate subjective incompatibility between the clustering results and the priori knowledge. The forecasting result by the proposed model is an interval, so the risk of forecasting is reduced. Forecasting results of electricity quantity demand of a certain region show that using the proposed model, the forecasting accuracy can be improved. The proposed model is suitable for medium- and l