Modeling Influenza Viral Dynamics in Tissue.pdf

Modeling Influenza Viral Dynamics in Tissue 1, 2 3 Catherine Beauchemin , Stephanie Forrest , and Frederick T. Koster 1 Adaptive Computation Lab., University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM cbeau@ 2 Dept. of Computer Science, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 3 Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, NM Abstract. Predicting the virulence of new Influenza strains is an impor- tant problem. The solution to this problem will likely require a combina- tion of in vitro and in silico tools that are used iteratively. We describe the agent-based modeling component of this program and report prelim- inary results from both the in vitro and in silico experiments. 1 Introduction Influenza, in humans, is caused by a virus that attacks mainly the upper respi- ratory tract, the nose, throat and bronchi and rarely also the lungs. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the annual influenza epidemics affect from 5% to 15% of the population and are thought to result in 3-5 million cases of severe illness and 250,000 to 500,000 deaths every year around the world [1]. The rapid spread of H5N1 avian influenza among wild and domestic fowl and isolated fatal human cases of H5N1 in Eurasia since 1997, has re-awakened inter- est in the pathogenesis and transmission of influenza A infections [2]. The most feared strain would mimic the 1918 strain which combined high transmissibil- ity with high mortality [3,4]. Virulence of influenza viruses is highly variable, defined by lethality and person-to-person transmission, but the causes of this variability are incompletely understood. The early events of influenza replica- tion in airway tissue, particularly the type and locati