Analytical Model for Risk Analysis of Economic Benefits of Investment Projects and its Application.pdfVIP

Analytical Model for Risk Analysis of Economic Benefits of Investment Projects and its Application LI Cunbin LI Xian School of Business Administration School of Business Administration North China Electric Power University North China Electric Power University Beijing, China Beijing, China lcb999@263.net Lixian1998@163.com Abstract—This paper analyzes many uncertain factors in and possibility of risk analysis. In risk estimation, probability economic benefits of investment project and the existing risks. distributions commonly used include Normal Distribution, With regard to the hiberarchy and decomposability of this Triangular Distribution, Binomial Distribution, etc. As noted complex system, economic benefit is decomposed into several above, in this paper, subsystems include sub-benefits and sub- subsystems, including benefit subsystems and cost subsystems. costs. The probability distribution of sub-benefits and sub-costs Triangular distribution, simple and clear to present data, is used to demonstrate the risk analysis of those subsystems. Based on often depends on that of risk elements with direct influence due the above analysis, the sub-normal distribution model is adopted to the few numbers of