Economic growth given machine intelligence, Hason.pdfVIP

Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence Robin Hanson∗ hanson@ School of Public Health, 140 Warren Hall, † University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 USA Abstract A simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implica- tions of machine intelligence. Machines complement human labor when they become more productive at the jobs they perform, but machines also substitute for human labor by taking over human jobs. At first, expensive hardware and software does only the few jobs where computers have the strongest advantage over humans. Eventually, computers do most jobs. At first, complementary effects dominate, and human wages rise with computer productiv- ity. But eventually substitution can dominate, making wages fall as fast as computer prices now do. An intelligence population explosion makes per-intelligence consumption fall this fast, while economic growth rates rise by an order of magnitude or more. These results are robust to automating incrementally, and to distinguishing hardware, software, and human capital from other forms of capital. 1. Introduction Since at least 1821 economists have recognized that dramatic consequences for wages and population can result from machines which can directly substitute for human labor (Ricardo, 1821; Samuelson, 1988). Yet since then machines seems to have mostly complemented human labor; new machine technology has seemed to raise, not lower, the demand for skilled labor. If anything, computers seem to have intensified this trend. The standard economic view seems to be that this trend will continue into the indefinite future (Simon, 1977). So