公共养老保险体制转轨经济学分析.pdf

Abstract Thisdissertation intotheoreticalof goes social reform deeply problems security theoretical andreviewsthe and issues withsocial empiricaldealing securitypensions． the ’the sectionssetout economicsof considers early simple pensions．It pure and and theeffects plans oftwo pay—as-you-gofully-ftmdedsystemscompare systems secondofthe on dissertationdiscussesthe saving．Thepart how suchatransitionwouldaffecttheriskshousehold it systems．Itexplore face，how asset it influence wouldalter howmight household pdce$，and behavior,including a from tO and choices．Itshowsthattransitionan incentivesworksave，and portfolio tO a offormwithouteconomic unfunded afundedisnot change effects， program just raise welfareifthe ofthe atransitionwouldeconomic such capitalintensity economy than the rule of is the isbelow greater level i．e．，themarginalproductcapital golden toa rateof economic concludethatatransition aggregate growth ，It fi．dly-funded a in an several reduction offers risk，and system positivefeatures，namely political lessnationalrisk inhousehold include increase portfolio choice。Disadvantages administrativecosts． increased sharing，and to marketand of discusssome onhow last dissertation The part guidance design in the reformofsuccessChina．Itexamines toenhance structures pensmn regulatory which institutionsmost ofretirement financial，regulatoryappearsupportive system most China． reforms，and needed，in urgently rute Key JEL ClassificationNumbers：1323，H11，H40，H55 2 引言 自20世纪八九十年代以来，世界范围内人口老龄化趋势的加剧，使得绝大多数 以现收现付制为基本养老保险模式的国家面临着一个共同的严峻挑战——现在 的养老保险体制在不远的将来将面临急待解决的财务困难。因此许多国家都在寻 找一条可以规避不足清偿风险 insolvencyrisk 和实现体制长期均衡的改革道路， 这是各个国家进行养老保险体制改革的共同目的。在这一触手可及的现实危险迅 速引发了一场席卷全球的养老保险改革的浪潮，其波及国家之多，影响之深远， 堪与三十年代世界经济大萧条相比较。 中国也不例外。按照国际公认的标准，一个国家60岁以上人口总数占总人口 的比重达到10％，或是65岁以上的人口占到总人口的7％时，即成为老龄化国 家。根据我国人口调查资料显示，我国人口老龄化程度每30年增加一倍。到2000 年时，我国65岁以上的人口的比重已经达到7．4％，60岁以上人口比重为lO．7 ％，老年人口总数达到1-3亿人；到2025年，将增加到2．8亿人，将占世界老龄 人口的1／4左右。人口结构短期内不可逆转的老龄化趋势以及经济体制全面转轨 的客观需要，都促使中国政府必须加快改