基于greyMarkov支持向量机的电弧炉终点参数预报.pdf

26 12 Vol. 26 No. 12 2009 12 Control Theory Applications Dec. 2009 :2009 grey Markov-- , , , (1. , 243002; 2. , 250101) : , , (grey Markov) (SVM), grey Markov--SVM, grey Markov , SVM. grey Markov-- SVM: GM(1,1), Markov; grey Markov , grey Markov, SVM, (PSO)SVM , , . grey Markov--SVMgrey--SVM Markov--SVM, . : ; ; ; ; : TF748.41 : A End-point parameter prediction for electric arc furnace based on grey Markov--support-vector-machines ZHANG Shao-de , MAO Xue-fei , MAO Xue-qin , GAO Shang-yi (1. School of Electrical Engineering and Information, Anhui University of Technology, Maanshan Anhui 243002, China; 2. Medium and heavy plate factory of Jigang Group Co.Ltd, Jinan Shandong 250101, China) Abstract: Because the end-point parameters of an electric arc furnace(EAF) are affected by both quantitative fac- tors and non-quantitative factors, we combine the grey Markov model with support-vector-machines(SVM) to produce a grey Markov--SVM prediction model for estimating the end-point parameter values of an EAF. The effects from the non- quantitative factors on the prediction values of end-point parameters are reflected by the grey Markov model; while the effects from the quantitative inputs are reflected by the SVM. The GM(1,1) model that reflects non-quantitative factors is established firstly, and then, its prediction values are revised by the Markov chain. Because the effect from the quantitative inputs can not be reflected by the greyMarkov model, the grey Markov-model is certainly not free from