人民币升值对我进出口影响的实证分析.docVIP

本科毕业论文 人民币升值对我国进出口影响的实证分析 作 者 周子剑 层 次 专科起点本科 专 业 国际贸易 年 级 2007 学 号 200727201001 办学形式 夜大 办学地点 东北财经大学 指导教师 成 绩 内 容 提 要 汇率制度对经济或国际贸易的影响是通过汇率水平的变动、调整来传导的。当一国经济向 其他国家开放进行贸易，意味着本国价格和外国价格之间可能存在某种固定关系。汇率平均水 平的变化对贸易条件产生影响，贬值促进出口，升值使出口下降，从而改善国际收支。汇率变 动对进出口贸易收支的调节有一个时滞问题，即汇率变化后的一段时期内，贸易收支并不能立 即发生预期的变化，而是先表现为一个向相反方向变化的过程，然后汇率变化的正向效果才会 逐渐显现出来。近期，人民币对美元汇率突破了“7”区间之后，屡创新高，累计升值幅度超过了19%。汇率因素已经成为今后影响我国外贸发展的一个重要因素。本文通过对汇率变动与进出口增长的关系进行分析，结合汇改以来我国外贸形势，指出当前人民币加快升值对我国进出口的影响。 关键词：人民币汇率 升值 进出口贸易 Abstract The influence of exchange rate system on the economy or the international trade is conducted through the exchange rate level change and the adjustment. When a country economy carries on trade with other nations openly, it means that there is some kind of fixed relations between the price of our country and that of foreign countries. The change of exchange rate average level has the influence on the trade condition: the depreciation promotes export, the appreciation causes the export to drop, thus improves the international payment balance.The exchange rate change has a time lag question to the import-export trade revenue and expenditure adjustment. That means shortly after the change of exchange rate, the trade revenue and expenditure cannot have the anticipated change immediately. It first change to the reverse direction, then the exchange rate change effect can appear gradually. Recently, After the exchange rate for RMB to Dollar touched “7”, and repeatedly even deeper rate, totally appreciation has exceed 19%. The exchange rate has become one important factor to Chinese international trade. With Chinese international trade situation after exchange rate reform, this paper has illustrated the affections of RMB appreciation to present Chinese import/export by analysis of relationship between exchange rate var