国际油价波动对中国经济影响的评估.pdfVIP

2011年 05 月 M ay, 2011 第25 卷第 05 期 East China Econom icM anagem ent Vol. 25, No. 05 DO I 103969/ jissn1007- 0座机电话号码 013 国际油价波动对中国经济影响的评估 李 丽 深圳 息职业技术学院, 广东 深圳 18029 [] 文章运用 一般均衡分析方法, 通过修正传统 CGE模型关于完全竞争与固定规模报酬的不合理假设 此 即我国能源市场中两 个甚为重要却常被忽略的特性 , 评估国际油价上涨对我国总体经济与产业的影响研究 表明, 国际油价波动对我国经济冲击幅度的评估受到生产技术与订价行为设定方式的影响只考虑非完全竞争 而忽略规模经济时, 冲击幅度与传统 CGE相差不大, 均明显低于同时考虑规模经济与非完全竞争市场结构时的 冲击幅度与国外文献在油价上涨初期所做的预测相比, 本文结果较为缓和, 显示由需求拉动的油价上涨, 对 我国实际GDP 的冲击并不如预期中的严重 [] 国际油价; 一般均衡; 外部经济; 不完全竞争 [] F 124 [] A [] 1007 097 2011 0 00 0 Im pact of InternationalOilPrice Shocks on Chinese Econom y L IL i Shenzhen Inst itute of Inf orma tion Technology, Shenzhen 18029, Ch ina Abstract: Comb in ing mi perfect competition and external econom y into trad itional CGE m odel, this paper app lied general equ ilibrium a- nalysis to smi ulate the effects of international oil price rising toward Ch ina. The resu lts show that, econom ic mi pact assessm ent of in terna- tional oil price rising on China is affected by production technology and price setting behavior in CGE m ode.l Considering mi perfect com- p letion but neglecting econom y of scale, the mi pact degree ism ore or less the sam e as under trad itional CGE hypothesis; both are s ignif-i cantly low er than that underm arket structure w ith economy of scale and mi perfect comp letion. Com peered w ith foreign literatures early forecasts, the resu lts of th is paper is quietm oderate, w hich ind icates that the mi pact of internal oil price rising on Ch inas realGDP is not as serious as expected. K ey words: oil price; general equilibrium; external econom y; mi perfect com petition , , , 2007 [ 1] 0% [ 5] 1980 200 , 196% , 2000 246% [ ] , , GDP 1% , 07% ~ , GDP, 08% 1981 1990, GDP 9% , , , [ 6] 9% , 066; 1991 2000 [ 1] , GDP 98% , 70% , , 071; 2000 2007 , GDP , 0% , 9 % , 76% , 081[ 3- 4] 196 2007, 196 CIF , , 011 2007 346, , 87% , 082% 8 3% , , , 1999 , , 2004, , 1993, 2003