山区农村公路水毁预估评价模型的研究.pdfVIP

Study on estimate and evaluation model of the water damage to mountainous rural highway A Dissertation Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate： Hao Qingzhen Supervisor： Hu Liqun Li Gang Chang’an University, Xi’an, China 摘 要 随着我国公路建设的迅速发展，山区农村公路占我国公路总里程的比重日益增加， 每年因水毁灾害造成的公路破坏也日趋增多，严重制约了我国山区农村正常的社会生活 和经济发展。因此，对山区农村公路水毁原因机理进行研究，选取合适的评价指标，进 行水毁灾害的评价和提前预估就显得非常必要。 山区农村公路水毁预估评价模型就是采用提前识别、预判的方法，对山区农村公路 有可能发生水毁破坏的路段进行预估评价，从而采取相应的防治措施，具有较强的针对 性和实用性。该模型主要从两方面进行着手建立，一是对山区农村公路水毁影响因子的 评价；二是各水毁影响因子的权重的确定。考虑到山区农村公路水毁的多样性及复杂性， 本文选取了六大因素作为构建水毁预估评价模型的影响因子，同时采用灰色关联法确定 了各水毁影响因子的权重。 预估评价模型按照得分从低到高，即水毁发生的可能性从小到大，被划分为四个等 级，并根据不同等级提出相应的灾情预测及相关建议。山区农村公路水毁灾害的评价及 防治的科学理念与技术对策应当贯彻于公路工程规划勘测、设计施工和养护管理的各个 阶段，使山区农村公路和自然环境相协调，这是根治山区农村公路水毁的根本出路。 关键词：山区农村公路，水毁，预估评价，灰色关联法 I Abstract With the rapid development of highway construction in our country, mountainous rural highway accounts for an increasing share of the total highway mileage. With the increasing traffic mileage, the damage caused by water damage are increasingly serious, and also severely restricts the mountainous rural normal social life and economic development. Therefore, studying the mechanism of water damage of rural highway in mountainous area and selecting the appropriate index to predict and evaluate the consequence of flood disaster is very necessary. Estimate and evaluation model for water damage of the mountainous rural road is to adopt method in advance to identify and diagnose the rural highway in mountainous areas which will most possibly suffer water damage, and take corresponding measures previously. This will have