上市公司财务预警体系建构的研究.docVIP

摘 要 在全球经济一体化背景下，随着国际竞争的加剧，经济领域中的复杂性和不确定性日益突出，上市公司发生财务危机的数量急剧上升，风险无处不在。 财务风险影响着上市公司的生存、发展和获利能力，某些风险可能会给上市公司带来致命的打击，一旦没有采取适当的措施或者采取的措施不够，这些公司很可能会陷入财务危机困境中，严重影响公司的发展，财务状况日趋恶化，所以必须及早加以控制和防范。在财务系统的正常运作中，通过对财务指标的综合分析，对公司财务状况进行预测研究，以及时发现公司在经营管理活动中潜在的经营风险和财务风险，并在危机发生之前向公司相关人员提供准确的预警信号，督促各方采取有效措施，避免潜在的风险演变成重大的财务损失。 随着我国的上市公司不断的发展、成熟，国际经济一体化步伐的加快，各企业面对的竞争日益激烈，企业应该在平时就应该对整个财务运营过程进行监控，以便及早发现潜在的危险。可见财务预警越来越重要，财务预警体系的建立极为迫切。 本文通过对前人在该领域的研究成果基础上，引出财务预警系统对上市公司的重要意义，同时对国内外财务预警系统研究现状做了分析。将传统财务预警体系与现金流量预警体系做了比较，体现了现金流量预警体系优越性。 最后，本文选取ST西安交大博通资讯股份有限公司对该系统进行了分析论证，以期达到应有的价值。 关键词：财务早期预警，财务风险，现金流量系统ABSTRACT Along with the international competition intensifies in the context of global economic integration in the economic field, the complexity and uncertainty have become increasingly prominent, sharp rise in the number of listed companies in the financial crisis, risk is everywhere. Affect the survival, development and profitability of listed companies for financial risk, some risk may give listed companies deal a fatal blow, and once failed to take appropriate measures or the measures taken is not enough, these companies are likely to fall into the plight of the financial crisis, and seriously affect the companys development, the financial situation is getting worse, and so must be controlled early and prevention. Prediction in the normal functioning of the financial system through a comprehensive analysis of financial indicators, the companys financial position, and found that the management activities, the potential business risks and financial risks, and to the company before the crisis staff provide an accurate early warning signals, and urge all parties to take effective measures to avoid the potential risk of evolving into a major financial loss. As the the constant development of Chinas listed companies mature, the accelerated pace of international economic integration, all companies face an increasingly competitive business in peacetime the entire fi