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上海交通大学博士学位论文
inflation and asset prices frequent fluctuations in many countries.Many domestic and foreign
scholars are discussing on whether the central bank should reflect on asset price fluctuations.Such
research is based on the research on the effect of asset price fluctuations on price stability,which
is the final target of monetary policy.The research is answer of the problems whether asset price
should be added to the measure of inflation and how inflation pressure is measured accurately.The
fourth chapter of the dissertation mainly analyzed two problems,one is what relationship between
real estate price and inflation,and the other is whether real estate price should be added to the
traditional price index and the loss function of central bank as target of monetary policy.For the
first problem,the dissertation explained it in theory both from the angles of rational investors and
monetary authorities,and introduced the function of asset prices index(FCI)to refection on future
pressure of inflation;Meanwhile applied ARDL model to test the impact of real estate price on
inflation,estimated the inflation forecast equation which included the real estate price,and utilized
instrument variable method and autocorrelation model for testing the information of inflation in
real estate price and the Fish effect of it,under the assumptions of adaptive expectation and
rational expectation respectively.For the second problem,the dissertation introduced many kinds
of generalized price indices that include asset prices,and analyzed in detail the feasibility of broad
sense price indices as the measure of inflation.The author think real estate price can forecast the
future inflation,meanwhile the Fish effect is notable,and the real estate price can hedge the future
inflation,which proved real estate price really included the expectation of inflation,and the central
bank need understand the information of inflation expectation in real estate price in the process of
formulating mo
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