房地产价格和货币政策的关系研究.doc

上海交通大学博士学位论文 inflation and asset prices frequent fluctuations in many countries.Many domestic and foreign scholars are discussing on whether the central bank should reflect on asset price fluctuations.Such research is based on the research on the effect of asset price fluctuations on price stability,which is the final target of monetary policy.The research is answer of the problems whether asset price should be added to the measure of inflation and how inflation pressure is measured accurately.The fourth chapter of the dissertation mainly analyzed two problems,one is what relationship between real estate price and inflation,and the other is whether real estate price should be added to the traditional price index and the loss function of central bank as target of monetary policy.For the first problem,the dissertation explained it in theory both from the angles of rational investors and monetary authorities,and introduced the function of asset prices index（FCI）to refection on future pressure of inflation;Meanwhile applied ARDL model to test the impact of real estate price on inflation,estimated the inflation forecast equation which included the real estate price,and utilized instrument variable method and autocorrelation model for testing the information of inflation in real estate price and the Fish effect of it,under the assumptions of adaptive expectation and rational expectation respectively.For the second problem,the dissertation introduced many kinds of generalized price indices that include asset prices,and analyzed in detail the feasibility of broad sense price indices as the measure of inflation.The author think real estate price can forecast the future inflation,meanwhile the Fish effect is notable,and the real estate price can hedge the future inflation,which proved real estate price really included the expectation of inflation,and the central bank need understand the information of inflation expectation in real estate price in the process of formulating mo