系统动力学在住宅房地产市场预测应用地研究——以吉安市为例.pdfVIP

摘 要 随着城市化进城的加快、社会经济的高速发展了，大量人口涌入城市，导致城市发展 与住宅房地产业发展之间的矛盾日趋明显，随之而产生的住房供给不合理、房价居高不下、 房地产经济泡沫等问题也越发严重，尽管国家已经采取了相应的宏观调控措施，来稳定房 价的过快上涨、限制住房投资性需求、调整住房供给结构、保证房地产经济的“软着陆”， 但仍面临着住房供给匮乏和不合理的状况，大量中低收入群体也因居住成本过高，难以在 城市定居置业。为了保持住宅房地产业的健康稳定发展，还是要着重从土地的合理投放和 住房的均衡供给量方面进行分析，该文也主要是通过运用系统动力学理论对吉安主城区住 宅房地产市场进行了模拟研究，为政府制定宏观调控政策提供了参考。 本文首先主要是以系统动力学理论、住宅需求理论、房地产经济理论为基础，然后对 影响住宅房地产市场指标因素进行选取和对比分析，最后建立起系统动力学模型，同时对 建成模型进行多条件下的仿真模拟试验，根据试验结果调整模型结构，并得到了2008 年至 2020 年住宅市场的预测趋势图。 其次，在预测数据结果的基础上，进一步的对土地、金融参数进行了计算机仿真模拟 政策试验，测试了政策参数的改变对住宅市场未来走势的影响。 最后，对所得仿真结果进行了研究分析，并结合住宅市场实际发展状况，提出了一些 政策性建议。 关键词：住宅市场；住宅需求；住宅价格；房地产经济；系统动力学 I Abstract With the acceleration of urbanization into the city, the rapid development of social economy, a large population into the city, urban development and ZhuZhaiFang real estate in the contradiction between the increasingly apparent, subsequently and produce housing is not reasonable, house prices high, real estate bubble in a more serious problems, although the country has taken a corresponding macroeconomic measures, to stabilize the housing prices rise rapidly, limit the investment demand, adjust the housing housing structure, ensure that real estate economic soft landing, but still face a housing shortage and unreasonable situation, a large number of low-income groups also because of the high cost of living, difficult to settle down in the city homes. In order to keep healthy and stable development of real estate industry ZhuZhaiFang, still want to focus on the reasonable on the land from the equilibrium and housing supply and analysis, this paper also mainly through the use of system dynamic theory to urban residential real estate market positions on the simulation research, making macro policies