StructuralanddynamiccomplexitiesofriskandcatastrophesystemsanapproachbySystemDynamicsmodelling.docVIP

Structural and dynamic complexities of risk and catastrophe systems : an approach by System Dynamics modelling Provitolo Damienne Chargée de recherche CNRS UMR 6049 ThéMA Université de Franche-Comté 30 rue Mégevand 25030 Besan?on Cédex vitolo@univ-fcomte.fr KEYWORDS Dynamic modelling, General Systems Theory, Risk analysis. Catastrophe, Complexity ABSTRACT Risk and catastrophe are complex systems. Within the scope of this paper, we focus our attention on structural and dynamic complexities of catastrophes and on the possibility of modelling and simulating its double complexity with a formal and methodological framework: the General Systems Theory and System Dynamics modelling. Then we briefly propose a model of urban catastrophe related to a flood. After we propose some ways of research allowing exceeding the limits related to the modelling. Introduction This document aims to apprehend the complexity of the systems of risks and catastrophes in urban environment I mean natural, technological, or even social ones. The catastrophe is a social and spatial disorganization of the territorial system which is affected by a disturbing event. Based on scientific research on risks and disasters and on our own research, we could identify various forms of complexity. Some of them concern the structural complexity of catastrophes, while others are related to the complexity of spatial and temporal scales. Others still depend on the complexity of geometrical forms and refer to the fractality of disasters. Finally, a last form of complexity is related to the non-linearity and the unpredictable dynamics of the systems. These various forms of complexity don’t exclude each other, but can be observe together during a catastrophe. Within the scope of this paper, we focus first on structural and dynamic complexities of catastrophes and on the possibility of modelling and simulating its double complexity with a formal and methodological framework: the General Systems Theory and System Dyn