ANewNormal,butwithRobustGrowthChinasGrowth.PDFVIP

A New Normal, but with Robust Growth: China’s Growth Prospects in the Next 10 Years Yang Yao Dean, National School of Development, Peking University The Chinese Economy is across the country; it mostly happens in the coastal Rebalancing provinces that produce more than 85 percent of China’s exports. Inland provinces have kept rel- atively high growth rates, creating convergence here are strong signs that the Chinese econo- within the country. As a result, the national Gini my is entering a stage of a “new normal.” Since T coefficient of personal income declined from 0.481 the global financial crisis hit in 2008, China’s in 2010 to 0.473 in 2013 (see Figure 2). growth rates have declined from double-digits to around 7.5 percent per annum. The economy is re- This transformation has been brought about by balancing: Export growth has substantially slowed three forces. The first is the global adjustment fol- down, from an average of 29 percent per annum lowing the 2008 financial crisis. Using other East between 2001 and 2008 to under 10 percent per Asian economies as a reference, China would annum in recent years. As a result, exports have