LectureNotesforSection5.7-MadisonAreaTechnical.docVIP

Section 5.7: Probability Big idea: If you have a function that mimics a histogram of all possible outcomes for some kind of measurement, then the definite integral of that function over a range of outcomes or measurements is the probability that you will make a measurement in that range. Hmmm…. Big skill: You should be able to integrate a probability density function over the correct range of values to predict the likelihood of an event, and to compute the mean value of a measurement over a range of values. Main Formulas: Properties of a probability density function (pdf) f(x) on the complete range of possible outcomes a ( x ( b: Probability is always positive: f(x) ( 0 for a ( x ( b All possible outcomes must sum up to 100%: Probability of a range of measurements computed as: P(c ( X ( d) = The mean (most likely value) is: . The median (half above, half below) is found by solving this equation for c: . Formula Practice: Show that the function is a valid pdf (probability distribution function) on the interval [0, 2]. Then compute the mean and median of this pdf. Finally, compute the probability of an x value falling in the range [0.5, 1.5]. Compute the value of k to make a valid pdf (probability distribution function) on the interval [0, 1]. Then compute the mean and median of this pdf. Finally, compute the probability of an x value falling in the range [0, 0.25]. Connection Between Discrete Probability and Probability Distribution Functions: Question: What does child-birthin’ have to do with probability distribution functions? Answer: The number of kids you can expect of either gender is a precursor to the “normal distribution function”. Example: If you have 2 kids, what are the probabilities of getting zero, one, or two girls? You can list all the possibilities this way: GG, GB, BG, BB, where the first letter represents the gender of the first kid, and the second letter represents the gender of the second kid. You also can list the possibilities using a