The Prediction of the Population and Medical Demand.doc

The Prediction of the Population and Medical Demand in Shenzhen Abstract This paper is to predict the population and the medical demands in a next decade. The issues discussed can be attributed to a combined problem of predictive estimation and optimization. For the first problem, the model can be divided into two part. According to the analysis of the resident population and the transient population, with the gray model we can predict the structure and the trend of resident population in a next year in Shenzhen. Then to predict the demands of the hospital bed in Shenzhen and other districts in the next 10 years. All the results we got is satisfactory since the relative error is negligible For the second question, taking the advantage of the results from the first question, we obtained the predictive demands of the hospital beds. Analyzed the factors that different kinds of diseases are treated in different medical institutions, the demand of the hospital beds for a certain disease can be calculated . That can be expressed by the accumulation of the products for the demand of the hospital beds and the weight for some medical institution. Keywords：Logistic model, the Gray Mode, the Human Population Ratio2.the Restatement and Analysis of the Question Shenzhen is one of the fastest growing city in economic growth, and its public health care has made considerable progress in the past 30 years. From its structure of view , the significant characteristics of the Shenzhen population is that the floating population is far more than the household population, and young population dominant. However, with the passenger of time and the adjustment of policy, the proportion of elderly population in Shenzhen will increase gradually and the changes in the industrial structure will also affect the number of migrant workers. Those factors may lead to the medical needs of Shenzhen with great differences in the future. The medical needs in the future will be closely linked