博士英语 浙大汉译英练习Unit+3.docVIP

Global Scenarios: Choosing the World We WantBy Allen Hammond 一直以来，公司的决策者和军事策划者们在举棋不定时经常会使用发展趋势一词作为决策的有力辅助手段。现在，这一手段可用于更广泛的社会目的，并可用于制订在社区、国家及国际水平上的维护公共利益政策。 1. Scenarios have long been used by corporate strategists and military planners as powerful tools to aid in decision making in the face of uncertainty. It is now time for these tools to be used for wider social purposes and incorporated into public policy processes at the community, national, and international levels. 人们试图去预测世界发展路线或寻求过分简化及单向的解决方法，对此我们都应保持怀疑态度，因为世界形势极其复杂。发展趋势分析则在我们展望未来时提供了一种更为错综复杂的观点,使我们集中注意所要面临的决策选择。 2. The world is exceedingly complex, and we should view attempts to predict its course or to offer simplistic and one-dimensional prescriptions for solutions with great skepticism. Scenarios provide a way of incorporating more complexity into our view of the future and of focusing attention on the strategic choices that we face. 几种发展趋势的分析被用在最近由世界资源学会、布鲁金斯学会及圣达非学院共同承担的2050计划中。该计划为本文所概括的模式提供了一种知识基础。进一步的知识支持来自全球发展趋势分析团体正在进行的研究工作，这是一个由斯德哥尔摩环境协会主办的独立的国际性学术团体。我提出的发展模式还基于对经济、社会、环境及人口趋势的长期分析，以及从世界银行、联合国机构及世界资源协会所搜集的各国资料。 3. Scenarios were used in the recent 2050 Project undertaken by the World Resources Institute, the Brookings Institution, and the Santa Fe Institute. The 2050 Project provided one of the intellectual underpinnings of the scenarios summarized here. Further support came from the on-going work of the Global Scenario Group, an independent international group of scholars hosted by the Stockholm Environment Institute. My scenarios are also supported by an analysis of long-term economic, social, environmental, and demographic trends and based on country-by-country data from the World Bank, UN agencies, and the World Resources Institute. 本文所论及的几种发展模式表明了三种互相矛盾的观点，并为下半个世纪全球及七大洲分别确定了三条不同的发展路线。 4. These scenarios reflect three conflicting world views and set out three different trajectories for the next half century for the globe as a whole and, separately, for each of seven major continental-s