翻译的论文.docVIP

论文内容翻译（不包括中间的图表，说明及最后的参考文献） Future flood losses in major coastal cities未来主要沿海城市的洪水损失 Flood exposure is increasing in coastal cities owing to growing populations and assets, the changing climate, and subsidence. 由于日渐增长的人口及资产，气候的变化，及陆地下沉，沿海城市的洪水风险正在增加。 Here we provide a quantification of present and future flood losses in the 136 largest coastal cities. Using a new database of urban protection and aitterent assumptions on adaptation, we account for existing and future flood defences. 在这里,我们对136座最大的沿海城市现在及将来的洪水损失进行量化。使用一个新的关于城市保护及合理假设的数据库,目的在于我们现在及将来的洪水防御。 Average global flood losses in 2005 are estimated to be approximately US$6 billion per year, increasing to US$52 billion by 2050 with projected socio-economic change alone. 2005年全球年平均洪水损失约 近60亿美元,2050年预计增加 到520亿美元,这只考虑单纯的社会经济的变化。 With climate change and subsidence, present protection will need to be upgraded to avoid unacceptable losses of US$1 trillion or more per year. 由于气候变化及陆地下沉,为了避免每年1万亿美元或更多的不可承受的损失，我们需要对目前的防御进行升级。 Even if adaptation investments maintain constant flood probability, subsidence and sea-level rise will increase global flood losses to US$60-63 billion per year in 2050. 即使顺应投资 以保持恒定的洪水概率,到2050年，陆地下沉及海平面上升仍然 将使全球年洪水损失增加到600 – 630亿美元。 To maintain present flood risk, adaptation will need to reduce flood probabilities below present values. 为了将洪水风险维持在目前的水平,这种适应性投资需要将洪水概率降低到低于现值。In this case, the magnitude of losses when floods do occur would increase, often by more than 50%, making it critical to also prepare for larger disasters than we experience today. 这样一来，当洪水发生时的损失就会增加，通常会高于50%，因此为比我们目前所遇更大的灾难做准备就显得尤为关键。The analysis identifies the cities that seem most vulnerable to these trends, that is, where the largest increase in losses can be expected.这个分析能识别出那些似乎最容易受到这种趋势危害的城市，也就是说，损失增加最大的地方将能被预测。 A first screening study provided a global overview of flood Kposure in world coastal cities. The exposure metric can be iewed as a worst case scenario, but it does not estimate verage annual loss